Pakistan Reader# 520, 17 January 2023
D. Suba Chandran
PML-Q’s fortune has been inversely proportional to the PML-N. It has also been inversely proportional to the relationship between the PML-N and the Establishment.
Yesterday (16 January 2023, Monday), Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, the President of the PML-Q suspended the party membership of Chaudhry Parvez Elahi, who is currently the acting chief minister of Punjab. Reason: Parvez Elahi earlier on Sunday (15 January 2023) made a statement regarding the party considering the offer from Imran Khan to merge the PML-Q with the PTI. Chaudhry Elahi was quoted saying: “The PML-Q joining will further strengthen the PTI.”
As the President of the PML-Q, Chaudhry Hussain has taken offence to the statement from Elahi and has suspended the latter from the party. But, is that the problem? Or is there a larger issue, that has resulted in what happened yesterday?
Rise of the Chaudhrys…
The Chaudhrys – Shujaat Hussain and Parvez Elahi have been the leaders of the PML-Q, since it was founded in 2002. Both the Chaudhrys, along with a few other leaders from Punjab were a part of the PML-N, until the breakup between the Sharifs and the Establishment. The Chaudhrys became the backbone of the PML-Q, and also became the King’s party for Gen Musharraf.
Following the 2002 elections, the party became the largest one in the Parliament with 105 seats. In Punjab, it managed to secure more than 30 plus per cent of the votes, and 129 seats in the provincial assembly. Parvez Elahi became the chief minister of the province for the first time. PML-N could win only 19 seats for the national assembly, and 38 seats for the Punjab provincial assembly. In retrospect, that was the high point for the PML-Q and the Chaudhrys.
…and their fall
With the exit of Gen Musharraf, the party’s fortune turned. Ever since, there has been a steep decline in the next three elections for the party during 2008, 2013 and 2018. In 2008, PML-Q could win 54 seats in the national assembly and 69 in Punjab provincial assembly.
In 2013, the elections that witnessed the return of the PML-N and Nawaz Sharif, it could win only two seats for the national assembly, and seven for Punjab provincial assembly. In the last election 2018, which witnessed the emergence of the PTI, the PML-Q could secure only five for the national assembly, and ten for the Punjab provincial assembly. However, the ten seats that the party had in Punjab provincial assembly was crucial for the PTI from preventing the PML-N to form the government.
The PML-Q and PML-N fortunes
PML-Q’s fortune has been inversely proportional to the PML-N. It is also inversely proportional to the relationship between the PML-N and the Establishment. Given the current relationship between the PML-N and the Establishment, and the tensions between Imran and the GHQ, what are the possibilities for the PML-Q to do well in the forthcoming elections?
Unlike the PML-N, the PML-Q is not a cadre-based party; it is more leader based. Also, the Chaudhrys have sustained the party, more by being on the right side of the Establishment.
Crystal ball: What next for the PML-Q
Clearly, the party is not likely to fare well in the forthcoming election. But that is not the reason for the divide between the Chaudhrys – Shujaat Hussain and Parvez Elahi. One could identify at least two major reasons for the divide. First, the Imran factor. Shujaat Hussain is not too keen to go with Imran Khan, whereas Parvez Elahi is. The difference was prominent when the two Chaudhrys clashed last April over the chief minister slot in Punjab. Shujaat Hussain was keen to get support from the PDM (led by PML-N and PPP), whereas Parvez Elahi was keen to go with Imran Khan. The difference was played in the public and went to court.
Second, the next generation Chaudhrys. Shujaat Hussain and Parvez Elahi come from the same family; both had worked in tandem since the 1990s. They came out of the PML-N together in 2001-02, and stayed together for the next three elections. Now the differences are obvious. The next generation Chaudhrys – the sons of both Hussain and Elahi are also in different camps and see a different political future.
Now, back to the latest issue – the notice issued by Shujaat Hussain to Parvez Elahi. According to Dawn, the notices seeks an explanation for Elahi’s “unconstitutional and illegal action”; the report says: “The notice said the PML-Q, as a political party, has its own identity, vote bank, party discipline and manifesto — which were all violated by Mr Elahi’s comments.” The notice makes a political and legal case, but is happening behind a larger divide between the Chaudhrys.
Will the Chaudhrys manage this crisis, or will this be the end of their political road? There was a similar drama last year between the two; however, both the leaders managed it, and were having a working relationship. That seems to be in a doldrum now. Given the current political equation between PTI, PML-N and the Establishment, the PML-Q has less political space, if it contests the election on its own.
Perhaps, the Chaudhrys have understood the problem well, but differ in the solution and the way forward. Perhaps Parvez Elahi thinks that the PML-Q experiment is over, and his future (and that of his children) stays with being a part of the PTI. Perhaps, Shujaat Hussain thinks that the PML-Q still will have bargaining power, and be a kingmaker. Perhaps both are right.
Finally, Imran Khan should take the credit. What the PML-N and the Sharifs could not do in Punjab, he has succeeded in it – breaking the Chaudhrys!
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